Thanks to Maya Vengurlekar, COO of Crisil Foundation, Mumbai, I had the opportunity to give a full length talk and presentation on ‘The Third Curve – The End of Growth as we know it’. I was more than prepared for counter-arguments to the notion that our holy cow of perpetual economic growth could be in trouble. But the audience of over 50 senior personnel, including their CEO, Ms Rupa Kudva, were amazingly attentive and receptive. That is reflected in the fact that I have been invited further to speak at their Delhi and Chennai main offices. I hope that rating agencies do factor the new and very real risks of energy and resource descent that spell the end of growth.
As I told the audience it is better to make realistic plans keeping limits to energy and resources in mind rather than think of ways to merely deal with risk that is inevitable in perpetual growth schemes. After all that is what rating agencies like Crisil are supposed to do 🙂
I spoke once more at another TEDx function. This one was called TEDxKCG and organised by the KCG group in Chennai. I made some improvements on my last TED presentation and I had a much better response. It will be posted on the net soon.
My talk was again called ‘The Third Curve’ which deals with the incompatibility of our exponential economic growth paradigm and the finite resources on our planet.
The Third Curve – a Lecture on the Paradox of Infinite Growth by Mansoor Khan
Ok finally for my TEDxYouth lecture in Chennai. It is called ‘The Third Curve’ and is a compact and visual way to illustrate the incompatibility of our Exponential Growth-based Economics and the Limits of Resources on a finite planet. Check it out at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY_o2KR5lu0
Just got back from Chennai where I spoke at the TEDxYouth Chennai meet. There were 14 speakers and many interesting and entertaining presentations. In all that it is hard to get people to listen to a heavy one and that too of a smaller future. My presentation was called The Third Curve and meant to illustrate the futility and madness of Exponential Growth by comparing the Growth Curve going skyward with the Depletion Curve that dives to zero. I think I did pretty ok but my daughter Zayn who was in the audience said I used some hard to understand terms. Will correct that in future 🙂 Will also post the link to see the lecture at a future date once they upload it.
My latest lecture on Peak Oil and the Limits of Growth was at the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad. It was about a 1 hour presentation to about 50 students. I was very happy and I think I got quite a few people thinking about what the quest for Perpetual Exponential Economic Growth has in store for us in the context of finite energy resources on a finite planet. If any of you have any venues for me to speak at on similar topics please contact me.
External view of Ascendas IT Software Park, Chennai
Did my first proper Peak Oil lecture at an IT software park in Chennai called Ascendas. Was invited by a company called Ecologin run by Sridhar Lakshmanan that organises eco camp trips. Meant to be a 60 minute session for which I prepared a Powerpoint presentation. I ran overtime a bit 😉 Gave me a lot of insight into how I can polish up my act for future lectures.
Below is a photo of the hall setting.
Lecture and Presentation Hall at Ascendas IT Software Park, Chennai
Here is an interesting article called ‘What the Japan disaster tells us about Peak Oil’. For many people who find it hard to visualise how vulnerable our energy dependant world is, this is a real-life example of the implications. Not all of them are directly due to peak oil of course but the effect of a reducing oil supply is evident.
Read the article at http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/04/japan-disaster-peak-oil
The company Dubai World is completely dependent on tourist travel to Dubai. The investments in projects such as artificial islands (shaped, among other things, to form a map of the world) and gigantic skyscrapers, were meant to be inhabited by rich tourists and business people that travel to Dubai by air. Even if the neighbouring emirate, Abu Dhabi, that has oil and money, gives new guarantees for Dubai’s debt, the fact remains that Peak Oil means that aviation cannot expand in future.
The investments that have been made in Dubai are based on prognoses similar to those that the International Energy Agency (IEA) makes every year. In this case what is important is not the latest edition of World Energy Outlook but the prognoses made 5 years ago. In 2004 the IEA considered that oil production in 2030 would be over 120 million barrels per day. The reality that we have now published in Energy Policy in our article The Peak Of The Oil Age is a maximal production of 75 million barrels per day in 2030.
In the future we will probably see many mistaken investments based on the overoptimistic prognoses from the IEA. The question is whether Dubai will be first of a long list.
Dmitry’s new article “Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, and Relocalisation” is a must read for those interested in how to communicate the order of things to others who are less interested……….. at least for now. Dmitry Orlov also he has the practical experience of the Soviet collapse to draw from.
“This week marks the end of the dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency. It marks the start of a terrible period of economic and political decline in the United States. And it signals the last gasp of the American imperium. That’s over. It is not coming back. And what is to come will be very, very painful.
Barack Obama, and the criminal class on Wall Street, aided by a corporate media that continues to peddle fatuous gossip and trash talk as news while we endure the greatest economic crisis in our history, may have fooled us, but the rest of the world knows we are bankrupt. And these nations are damned if they are going to continue to prop up an inflated dollar and sustain the massive federal budget deficits, swollen to over $2 trillion, which fund America’s imperial expansion in Eurasia and our system of casino capitalism. They have us by the throat. They are about to squeeze.
There are meetings being held Monday and Tuesday in Yekaterinburg, Russia, (formerly Sverdlovsk) among Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The United States, which asked to attend, was denied admittance. Watch what happens there carefully. The gathering is, in the words of economist Michael Hudson, “the most important meeting of the 21st century so far.”
I love the way The Archdruid puts it in this article on what is REALLY needed at the advent of Peak Oil….. of course it depends on
a.) Whether you know what Peak Oil is all about.
b.) Whether you are of the paradigm that recognizes growth as the pitfall of the industrial and cheap energy era.
c.) Whether you are fundamentally an optimist or a realist (often confused as a doomer or a peaknik).
Anyway so basically The Archdruid points to two possible lines of solutions needed to face Peak Oil realistically (sorry you optimists but sometimes a realistic approach is better because as Matt Savinar puts it really well on the caption on his website – “Deal with reality before reality deals with you!!!!” No place for white collared optimism there. 😉